Token life cycle

$DEMOCRACY · DEMOCRACY DIED IN ROMANIA

Launched 14 Oct 18:23 on pump-fun. Tracking level: minimal — 4 successful transactions, none after the first minute (launch bundle only). Prediction data (what the frozen model knew) and outcome data (what happened) are kept in separate columns. Analyze now →

Timeline

each row is the 5-minute bucket containing the mark (the 1m row shows minutes 0–5), from the filtered trade history; reviews from adaptive tracking

markprice × refvolume 5mtrades 5mbuy sharebuyerscreator sellstop-10 %statefrozen P(2×) / P(−70%)

1m1.00×$10410%01—low activity · not evaluated

5m1.00× (no trades)$04 tx—00—DEADlow activity · not evaluated

15m1.00× (no trades)$04 tx—00—DEADlow activity · not evaluated

30m1.00× (no trades)$04 tx—00—DEAD

1hnot yetDEAD

3hnot yetDEAD

6hnot yetDEAD

12hnot yetDEAD

1dnot yetDEAD

2dnot yetDEAD

3dnot yetDEAD

Prediction data — locked before the outcome

1m · 18:24:45 UTC

runner 12 (test-set 56th) · P(2×) 0.4% · P(10×) 0.18% · P(20×) 0.14% · P(−70%) 0.2%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 687c2af8668c…

5m · 18:28:45 UTC

runner 1 (test-set 28th) · P(2×) 0.3% · P(10×) 0.13% · P(20×) 0.11% · P(−70%) 0.1%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 49f6ca8eeaf4…

15m · 18:38:45 UTC

runner 1 (test-set 28th) · P(2×) 0.3% · P(10×) 0.13% · P(20×) 0.11% · P(−70%) 0.1%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 4399f4ba1f20…

Outcome data — what happened afterwards

6-hour window not complete yet.

Largest single sells

$104 at 1 min (LEEvET…)

▸Tracking transitions

18:27

new → minimal

4 successful transactions, none after the first minute (launch bundle only)