Token life cycle

$和平熊猫 · Ping Ping and Fu Shuang

Launched 14 Oct 18:21 on pump-fun. Tracking level: minimal — two quiet reviews, no move. Prediction data (what the frozen model knew) and outcome data (what happened) are kept in separate columns. Analyze now →

Timeline

each row is the 5-minute bucket containing the mark (the 1m row shows minutes 0–5), from the filtered trade history; reviews from adaptive tracking

markprice × refvolume 5mtrades 5mbuy sharebuyerscreator sellstop-10 %statefrozen P(2×) / P(−70%)

1m1.00×$3,6756939%231—no trades seen · not evaluated

5m1.00× (no trades)$048 tx—00—LAUNCHno trades seen · not evaluated

15m1.00× (review)$01 tx—00—LAUNCHno trades seen · not evaluated

30m1.00× (review)$00 tx—00—DEAD

1h1.00× (review)$00 tx—00—DEAD

3hnot yetDEAD

6hnot yetDEAD

12hnot yetDEAD

1dnot yetDEAD

2dnot yetDEAD

3dnot yetDEAD

Prediction data — locked before the outcome

1m · 18:22:12 UTC

runner 100 (test-set 100th) · P(2×) 65.4% · P(10×) 86.63% · P(20×) 22.90% · P(−70%) 0.6%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 65513ec8e14b…

5m · 18:26:12 UTC

runner 100 (test-set 100th) · P(2×) 65.4% · P(10×) 86.63% · P(20×) 21.74% · P(−70%) 0.6%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · 18e1c2957e40…

15m · 18:36:12 UTC

runner 100 (test-set 100th) · P(2×) 65.4% · P(10×) 86.63% · P(20×) 21.74% · P(−70%) 0.6%

not active at the snapshot (not evaluated) · Written into a tamper-proof ledger before the result was known · a7a48a1e5452…

Outcome data — what happened afterwards

6-hour window not complete yet.

Largest single sells

$222 at 0 min (FF3dsq…) · $205 at 0 min (BzsfZ1…) · $168 at 0 min (4rNwdR…) · $143 at 1 min (4TeTbd…) · $136 at 1 min (J3gZFp…)

▸Tracking transitions

18:25

new → active

48 successful transactions in the first 4 minutes, 19 after the first minute

19:21

active → minimal

two quiet reviews, no move